A bit of a rant

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Postby jjmac » Mon Dec 10, 2007 9:33 am

nordle wrote:
>>
The point is that models can be right for certain periods and then very very wrong.
>>

In other words, the more data incorporated into the model, the more reliable the extrapolation.


Also, the models need to dynamically include those results as they further contribute to state. That's been the hard part up until recent times and is the main problem with that 'show'. It's data only goes up to around the '80s'. Since ... modeling technology has expanded since, ie; computer based techniques. It is more than just a little redundant.


One good example of this, is that it has only been the last few years that Australian researches have been able to reliably trace the underlying triggers behind 'drought' cycles in Australia. Which are very economically devastating. The obvious issue of why the hell do they try to grow a water hungry crop like 'cotton' in a friggin desert in the first place, is of course an other issue
(grin).

Essentially, it boils down to very small variations in surface sea temperatures in the pacific, between Australia and South America. And the location/focus of those temperatures. Which tend to drift side ways between the two.

Energy systems, when modelled, don't directly scale ! Not in a linear fashion. For example, the Planets' magnetic/electrical state is directly related to the convection currents of the inner molten parts. Which causes the phenomenon of rotation. Which in turn acts as a contributory driver for this. The orbit also plays a major role.

Attempts to emulate this, such as, by the use of a copper disc being spun through a magnetic field (a Faraday disc), attempting to generate enough charge to feed back into the system in order to get a kind of 'perpetual' spinning of the disc occuring ... don't work. The speed that the disc would need to be spun up to, makes it impractical. If it was directly scaled up to planetary size we would all be thrown off as a result. Where as the amount of spin that would be needed to emulate the earths rotation with respect to size is very slight. Hardly enough to generate any current.

So, as the size of the system increases, so does the effect of the parts. Which is also a basic idea behind 'Chaos Theorems' as they apply to weather models.

The point being, that the effects that something like carbon can have on a system like the very complex and 'large' planetary weather system need to be further recycled back into the model and can't be seen as being linear in effect. Or immediate in result !.

The insidious part is that it creates a dynamic that packs a lot of momentum. ... By the time the observations become sufficiently clinical ... The option to just turn off or reduce the input in order to regulate the effect is no longer there.
The size of the system is just too big for that.

Political and business groups unfortunately haven't quite appreciated this particular characteristic of scaling in terms of systems such as this.

In any case, a person may as well hang in and see what happens. As i tend to think there are going to be a number of interesting decades coming up. :)


On another note,
>>
But part of my Income comes from day trading stocks and derivatives.
>>

hmmmm, we just gotta meet one day :wink: :)


edited: no real changes

jm
Last edited by jjmac on Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby nordle » Mon Dec 10, 2007 10:18 pm

jjmac wrote:On another note,
>>
But part of my Income comes from day trading stocks and derivatives.
>>

hmmmm, we just gotta meet one day :wink: :)

jm


Sure JJ, if you fancy losing cash extremely rapidly, I'm your man :)
The year started so well and is ending very badly, reluctantly the day job is looking to be required for some time to come. The age old problem of running losses and shorting profits I'm afraid.
One aspect is looking slightly promising, but I won't know for 6 months or so.
When moving house/flat, I have to keep in mind we need to be below 3rd story at least. That way, if I ever throw myself out the window, hopefully I might stand a chance of bouncing.

I have found some OS trading tools, but not many, and most of those looked as though they were last updated around KDE 2.

http://sourceforge.net/projects/humaitrader/
http://eclipsetrader.sourceforge.net/
http://sourceforge.net/projects/ast/
http://sourceforge.net/projects/oropuro/
http://sourceforge.net/projects/aistockbot/

In the end, I stuck with the platform tools as provided by brokers. That and the other excellent packages which can be purchased, are, I suspect, the reasons for a lack of itch scratching going on.
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Postby jjmac » Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:44 am

>>
When moving house/flat, I have to keep in mind we need to be below 3rd story at least.
>>

Now thats using the 'ol head i reckon (grin). Ground floor would probably be better though :)


Have you considered dummying it. To get rid of the stress element in order to see what the actual luck factor is, with out the formers inclusion. I've noticed that really successful people in that kind of business always end up mention that they have been amazingly lucky, rather than anything else such as actually having had any economic insight.

Rivkin was a good example there. He left school at 14 and started with a few thousand and just, literally, had amazing blind luck at trading. Shocking luck in every other aspect of his life though.

>>
When moving house/flat,
>>

Got ya :wink: :wink:, that could be a handy trick too, in it self :)

Hope the new year works out well.


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Postby MartyBartfast » Tue Dec 11, 2007 10:18 am

nordle wrote:When moving house/flat, I have to keep in mind we need to be below 3rd story at least.


No you want to be above the 3rd story, then when Global Warming kicks in and the sea leve rises 20m you'll still keep your feet dry.
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Postby pootman » Tue Dec 11, 2007 12:11 pm

You might want to keep a canoe in the wardrobe too.
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Postby wyliecoyoteuk » Tue Dec 11, 2007 5:04 pm

Expecting the media to bother with facts instead of "facts" is a waste of time.

A young friend of mine was involved in a car accident the other day, was thrown from the vehicle, and needed a minor operation to re-locate his thumb. He had some cuts and 2 lovely black eyes.
The driver, who was wearing her seat belt, walked away from the upturned vehicle, the only injury she sustained was a twisted ankle getting out.
The local press reported :

A man in his twenties was in hospital last night with serious injuries after being trapped under an overturned vehicle on the A38. the passenger was also taken to hospital with minor injuries.

I was involved with putting out a fire in a crashed vehicle outside my house, along with my neighbour.
When the fire brigade arrived, the fire was out.

Despite the reporter talking to 4 people who all told basically the same story, the fire brigade apparently arrived "just in time to put out the fire"



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Postby nordle » Tue Dec 11, 2007 9:58 pm

jjmac wrote:Have you considered dummying it. To get rid of the stress element in order to see what the actual luck factor is.


I started off reading several books, just to get try and absorb info from people who's been there, seen it, done it etc
Come Into My Trading Room - Alexander Elder
The Naked Trader - Robbie Burns
Selecting Shares That Perform - Richard Koch
The Harriman Book of Investing Rules
I then paper traded for a month, got frustrated due to paper profits not being real and dived in.

Paper trading is fine, but its not the same as with real funds, you really do make different decisions.
And the buzz from the wins and losses is no way near as exciting as the real thing.
Anyone with a gambling streak should leave well alone (unless they are any good of course). I never used to gamble (horses), but it can be a real buzz, and it covers the weeks beer money, so can't complain.

I've noticed that really successful people in that kind of business always end up mention that they have been amazingly lucky, rather than anything else such as actually having had any economic insight.

I think its important to be able to read markets, how they interact, to appreciate what stage were at in the economic cycle, be able to understand a balance sheet and have plenty of spare time to read RNS updates and decipher various statements.
But beyond that, if your not insider trading, then luck appears to be key.
Successful investment = 20% Fundamentals, 40% psychology, 40% luck/timing.

disclaimer, 90% of stats are made up on the spot.

For example, if I'd made the same decisions I did in March '07 in March '04, it's more than likely going to have ended up very nicely. But because everything is in flux right now, people talking about the next "great depression" etc, its been very difficult.

Keeping the companies I invested in this year, "IF" the timing had been better I could have turned £1 into £15 within 8 months. Instead its more like 50p.
The decision making process on fundamentals has been pretty good, having picked out several takeover targets. But the psychology and timing have been shocking. And this is largely due to violent trading, which is largely down to greed by banks (and ultimately shareholders). CDO's and SIV's. Just a few letters which have caused billions to be wiped off of peoples savings and pensions and lead to a freeze in equity markets, making my next move to a lower floored residence impossible without a lottery win :)
Psychology appears to be more important than fundamentals, if a market is loved its way over bought beyond sense (they always go down eventually). And those which are out of favour, for no financial reason, will take an absolute beating (eventually coming good).

There's an IRC channel I'm sometimes in (unfortunately I can't as daytime job requies the hours at the moment). I'm in Windows now, but when I'm back in Linux I'll look at the settings and post back, it might be worth bumbling in and saying hello and seeing what people are upto / into.

PS. When day trading, I always use Linux. The response time from web based platform is WAY more responsive than Windows.
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Postby jjmac » Thu Dec 13, 2007 10:25 pm

nordle wrote:
>>
I then paper traded for a month, got frustrated due to paper profits not being real and dived in.
.
.
.
Paper trading is fine, but its not the same as with real funds, you really do make different decisions.
>>

Yes, i had no doubts that you would have done your research. As you always appear too, going by consistencies from previous posts. It is one of your signatures really. And it seems i guessed right on the impatient element getting in on things as well :). That's the killer. It tends to get in my way often enough as well. But, as with all trades (no pun) time spent is time well spent. Things tend a habit of still being there years on, like rocks, bits of graffiti at train platforms etc ... though, these days, it getting a bit wet under foot may also be on the cards.

Thanks for those links and hints too . :)

>>
disclaimer, 90% of stats are made up on the spot.
>>

(grin) :D




wyliecoyoteuk wrote:
>>
Expecting the media to bother with facts instead of "facts" is a waste of time.
>>

Your not wrong there, especially when a person bumps into it first hand.

A couple of years ago, some kids playing with 'crackers' (fireworks), over the local bush started a fire, accidentally. They tried to do an 'exit stage right' but my neighbour opposite, who i will call 'pug' (one needs to know her :) ) whose house backs onto a section of bush, managed to collar a couple of them.

In any case, i had just gotten out of the shower having just enjoyed a couple of blissful days of grubbiness when i heard all the popping, and saw the smoke. It was burning very strongly out the back of an other house that was also backed on the bush, and had started on a bamboo patch (pop ,pop, crackle).

I rushed over and spent around 20 - 30 minutes with a garden hose successfully containing it etc. Before the brigade turned up and took over. I also fell into a drain and was surprised at how hot the actual ground was. It partly melted my runners.

The local mag had an article that praised the local 'volunteer brigade' for being first on the scene. Which promoted their worth as evidenced. This is a suburban location too, not a country side one. And the volunteers are more of a social group than anything else. They do cost money to run though. And doesn't hurt a particular councillors social image either.

I was first on the scene and didn't see any sign of the volunteers, even after the official brigade turned up. Even if they had been handy, i happen to know that all their gear is locked in a garage up the road and wouldn't have been accessible any way :roll:

.... Now, where is that piece on the Iraq campaign again ,scratch scratch (grin).


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Postby guy » Fri Dec 14, 2007 12:19 pm

Trading is like any gamble - only a few savvy professionals make regular profits, and those can be huge. Someone else has to pay for that. For every George Soros there are a million small-time losers.

If you still fancy your hand against the professionals, the main thing to remember is that the things you are buying and selling have intrinsic values dictated by forces outside the trading markets: shares provide the shareholder with income, commodities are needed for food or industry. The trading markets then distort these values. To predict rises and falls, you need to track both aspects.

I have a system that I work with shares. I assume that gambling profit, rather than investment income, dominates fashion - and fashion dominates short-term market movements. I look for companies that are fundamentally sound, but out of fashion (going through a rough patch, for example). I sell when they come back in fashion - maybe many years later. Meanwhile I rake in the share dividends. Despite minimal time spent on it all, I usually outperform the stock market as a whole. How I rate companies as unfashionable vs. unsound is not rocket science, but it is my secret. :)
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Postby ollie » Sun Dec 16, 2007 6:49 am

Global warming and devastation of the Earth always makes good headlines. It's amazing that you never see anything about over population and the insatiable use of non-replenishable resources by the US.

If you want to be truly terrified, the Ross Ice Shelf and West Antartic Ice Sheet have started to melt. If this occurs as happened with the Larsen Ice Shelf you will look at a 15 metre rise in ocean levels very quickly. I have heard speculation about the possibility of a very large tsunami if the shelf over comes the effects of friction and slides into the ocean before melting.

A 15+ metre rise in sea levels would definitely cause much devastation around the world and significantly reduce the sustainable farm land available for food production.

However, it is only just over 300-years since the last mini Ice Age, also called the Dark Ages in Europe and the reason for Stradivarius violin quality, the magnetic poles are due/starting to flip exposing the Earth to massive doses of radiation, the Mayans and other "ancient" cultures predicted the end of the Earth between 2000 AD and 2020 AD, and so on ...

Is this just nature controlling a pestilence over running the Earth? ;-)
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Postby jjmac » Sun Dec 16, 2007 10:21 pm

The Andes have been experiencing uncommon thawes too. There is suggestion it could put the reliability of agricultural water supplies in serious jeopardy.

ollie wrote:
>>
the Mayans and other "ancient" cultures predicted the end of the Earth between 2000 AD and 2020 AD,
>>

Yes, their (visual) records (predated) predicted _two_ great changes, the first involving white skinned Gods with beards who come from the east in really big canoes, coinciding with the Spanish invasion(s). The second was undefined but resolved to the above date(s). (ohhwahhh :wink:). I wouldn't pay much heed to them myself if it wasn't for their uncanny sophistication in astronomic calculation. They were actually aware of general precession ! ... Where were their damn telescopes. Let alone 'glass' or signs of glass making technologies. But then, all their 'stuff' was largely destroyed by the murderous gold lust effected christians that stumbled apone them. They new bad when they saw it :roll: Dressed totally inappropriately for the climate too, i might add. Nothing like a bit of the old spirituous sanctum, and pass the shot, as a contribution to out reach of civilisation (grin) ...

guy wrote:
>>
How I rate companies as unfashionable vs. unsound is not rocket science, but it is my secret. :)
>>

Ar, go on, .... not fair, not fair :) :)


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Postby wyliecoyoteuk » Sun Dec 16, 2007 11:16 pm

And if you really really want be scared, look at the reports on the release of methane locked in the artic tundra causing a sudden atmospheric extinction.

http://energybulletin.net/3647.html
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Postby Rhakios » Mon Dec 17, 2007 12:01 am

jjmac wrote: They were actually aware of general precession ! ... Where were their damn telescopes. Let alone 'glass' or signs of glass making technologies.
jm


As all of their astronomical calculations were based on objects visible to the naked eye, they did not require telescopes, or perhaps that should be the other way round: as they did not have telescopes all their astronomy was based on objects visible to the naked eye. In any event, all that is needed for accurate measurements of visible objects is carefully calibrated lines of sight. There is considerable evidence from their surviving architecture that they did indeed use such things.
Sadly, as most of the stuff I know about the Maya has been got from books, I can't just point you to a web page, so you'll have to fwse* for yourself.


*As google has become a verb, then perhaps the oblique reference to google can be used in the same way. :)
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... in a universe far away, and Climate Change (possibly)

Postby jjmac » Mon Dec 17, 2007 8:33 am

Rhakios wrote:
>>
As all of their astronomical calculations were based on objects visible to the naked eye, they did not require telescopes, or perhaps that should be the other way round: as they did not have telescopes all their astronomy was based on objects visible to the naked eye.
>>

Yes, i'm aware of that. I was being a little loose with my exclamation i think. Even so, the degree of clarity required ...

To observe such precision without some form of enhancing instrument is really quite amazing.

The only other thing would have to involve a very acurate and long term keeping of records. As even with instrumentation subtle things like that are easily not seen

It really is a great lose, that so much of their works were trashed.


Rhakios wrote:
>>
so you'll have to fwse* for yourself.

*As google has become a verb, then perhaps the oblique reference to google can be used in the same way. :)
>>

Arrr yes,
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
FWSE
(Fast Wide Single Ended) Refers to a Fast Wide SCSI implementation that uses the common single ended signaling
.
.
.
FWSE is not available in the list of acronyms. Try:
encyclopedia
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Thus the '*'

In the beginning, ... there was google, ... and there was but only the beginnings ...

And i'm not very surprised either :)


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RE: ... in a universe far away, and Climate Change (possibly

Postby Rhakios » Mon Dec 17, 2007 5:49 pm

FWSE=Famous Web Search Engine: coined (so far as I am aware) in NewScientist due to complaints about the fact that frequent references to Google (in the form of a verb) could be seen as a recommendation. It's also quicker to just use FWSE than for them to say, every time, "other search engines are available", which seems to be the trend on the TV over here at the moment.

With regard to the Maya, it's not only that so many of their books were burned, but the climate, unlike that of, let's say, Egypt is generally wet or at least damp, so any works cached in or above the ground will have rotted anyway. :(
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